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Two Eastern Circles reports, to be published in late summer, analyse Russia-China relations in the fields of energy and AI.

They delve into the government policies, the evolution of bilatera relations in the two strategic spheres since the first sanctions on Russia in 2014, and since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The energy report dives into the transformation of the Russian oil and gas sectors in response to sanctions, and analyses the efficacy of the oil embargo and price cap following Russia’s reorientation of its O&G exports through China and India. It also studies the impact of Ukraine invasion on Gazprom and Russia’s growing role on the EU LNG market.

The second report investigated the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing in the field of AI, which both have applied to perfect the state control over the population, using COVID time as a testing ground. The consequences in Russia include using face recognition technology to cement the remnants of protest, and as a tool of military mobilisation of the unwilling.
Both reports use micro-economic approach: analyzing geopolitics by studying strategic projects and company decisions.

The reports were written at the request of the DGRIS of the French Ministry of the Armies.

The authors are Anastasiya Shapochkina on energy, Sebastian Linke on AI.

Our editor is an Austrian expert on Russia-China relations Velina Tcharkova.
1 AUGUST 2023
Evolution des relations entre la Turquie et l’Azerbaïdjan
Pauline Millet – diplômée de Sciences Po
22 MaY 2023
Wagner as tool of Russian geopolitical strategy: lessons from Ukraine
Régis Genté, Rodolphe Oberle, Hennadiy Maksak, Yan St-Pierre, Anastasiya Shapochkina
30 April 2023
The Role of Ukraine for the EU Energy Security Before and After the War
Marcia Holst
30 April 2023
How the war impacts Russia's influence in Central Asia
Anais Fiault
30 April 2023
Russia-China partnership or rivalry in Africa?
Benedetta Coraglia
1 March 2023
Russian natural gas: the end of Moscow's energy weapon?
Charlotte Souyris in Diplomatie Magazine
1 March 2023
Energy at the heart of Russian strategy in Ukraine
Anastasiya Shapochkina in Diplomatie Magazine
21 February 2023
One year of sanctions on Russian oil: how effective?
Philippe Charlez - Institut Sapiens
Hugo Duterne - Association pour l’étude des pics pétrolier et gazier

3 December 2022
Could Lithuania hold the key to Europe's energy security?

Anastasiya Shapochkina in The Conversation

11 November 2022

The roots of the Ukrainian national identity

Yaroslav Hrytsak in Diplomatie Magazine

11 November 2022

The religious issue between Kyiv and Moscow

Anatolii Babynsky in Diplomatie Magazine

11 November 2022

Ukraine's energy challenges

Anastasiya Shapochkina in Diplomatie Magazine

11 November 2022

Ukraine at the EU's doorstep?

Dmytro Naumenko in Diplomatie Magazine

11 November 2022

The Black Sea, Russian domination without a grip on the war in Ukraine?

Florent Parmentier in Diplomatie Magazine

11 November 2022

Faced with total war, which partners for Ukraine?

Gennadiy Maksak in Diplomatie Magazine

11 November

Ukraine/Russia war: unexpected resistance from Kyiv and failing strategy from Moscow

Volodymyr Datsenko in Diplomatie Magazine

7 September 2022

Turkmenistan energy export strategy

Samuel Frerichs, Aleksander Malyarenko, Dylan van de Ven

15 August 2022

Travel notes from Georgia - Tskaltubo

Dylan van de Ven

17 August 2022

Travel notes from Georgia

Dylan van de Ven

14 June 2022

Travel notes from Estonia

Anastasiya Shapochkina

12 April 2022

The erosion of the Nazarbayev regime through the prism of oil and gas resources

Stanislas de Bourmont

11 April 2022

Severely impacted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, will Central Asian economies finally diversify? 

Dylan van de Ven

6 April 2022

Sanctioned Belarus since 2020

Alexander Malyarenko

1 April 2022
The EU plan to break free from Russian energy

Anastasiya Shapochkina, Gabrielle Valli 

18 March 2022

Central Asian economies sure to be hit hard by sanctions against Russia 

Dylan van de Ven

La revue des juristes de Sciences Po - March 2022
Fit-for-55 and the European energy autonomy
Anastasiya Shapochkina, Gabrielle Valli
Report for the French Ministry of the Armed Forces - DGRIS (in French)
Strategic implications of Turkish-Ukrainian defense industrial cooperation 
Anastasiya Shapochkina, Éléonore Garnier
Editor: General Michel Yakovleff 
16 March 2022
REPowerEU: same tools, new objectives
Gabrielle Valli
14 March 2022
How will the economic sanctions against Russia impact
Zhasmin Avetisyan
19 February 2022
L'érosion du régime de Nazarbaïev vue par le prisme des resources pétro-gazières
Stanislas de Bourmont
24 January 2022
Telegram from the field: Protesting in Kazakhstan
Eastern Circles 
12-13 January 2022
Russia NATO Council negotiations and OSCE meeting on Ukraine
Anastasiya Shapochkina

10 January 2022
Results of the US-Russia negotiations on European security
Anastasiya Shapochkina

8 January 2022
Origins and prospects of the tensions in Kazakhstan

Gabrielle Valli

In the first week of January 2022, Kazakhstan has experienced the biggest internal political crisis since independence. Russia, has sent troops to Kazakhstan to stabilize the situation, at the request of Tokayev, using for the first time the CSTO framework.
8 January 2022
Scenarios of the US-Russia negotiations on European security
Anastasiya Shapochkina
On January 10, 2022, a ministerial level meeting will take place between the US and Russian diplomats to discuss the issues of Ukraine and the Russian ultimatum to the West on the revision of the European security architecture at large. Building upon the outcomes of a physical meeting between the two countries’ presidents in Geneva in July, a video-conference and a phone call in December 2021, January meeting marks several important developments for the US-Russia relations, the position of Russia on the international stage, and its role the post-Soviet neighborhood, including Ukraine.
Diplomatie, décembre - janvier 2022
Eight years of war in Ukraine
Anastasiya Shapochkina
A review of the geopolitical and security situation in Ukraine, eight years since the start of the conflict with Russia, including the events leading up to the conflict, the humanitarian situation in the occupied territories of Donbass, and the legal dilemmas for the Ukrainian state.
L’Express, 16 décembre 2021 
Privée de gaz par Moscou, l'Ukraine doit développer le nucléaire
Anastasiya Shapochkina, Gabrielle Valli
Diplomatie n° 111, septembre-octobre 2021
Economie et politique dans l'espace postsoviétique : des stratégies au service du pouvoir ?
Entretien avec Sergei Guriev par Anastasiya Shapochkina et Gabrielle Valli
New Eastern Europe, October 4, 2021
Nazarbayev’s handmade political transition in Kazakhstan
Hubert-Felix Delattre, Charles-Adrien Fourmi, Dylan van de Ven, and Gabrielle Valli

While Kazakhstan's political transition remains stalled as the same elite holds domestic power both overtly and behind the scenes, external relations will likely become more complex and evolve in a manner undesired by the regime.
Les Grands Dossiers de Diplomatie n° 63, août-septembre 2021
Turquie-Ukraine, carrefour d'intérêts politiques
Anastasiya Shapochkina et Eléonore Garnier
Diplomatie n° 110, juillet-août 2021
Biélorussie: crise postélectorale et avenir desrelations avec la Russie et l’Union européenne
Dimitar Dermendzhiev et Alexander Malyarenko
The Conversation, 23 April 2021
Trente-cinq ans après Tchernobyl, la Russie joue crânement la carte nucléaire
Anastasiya Shapochkina
Regard sur l'Est, 12 April 2021
Armenia 3 years after the Velvet Revolution: lost in transition?
Eastern Circles (Gabrielle Valli, Eléonore Garnier, Irene Sciurpa, Dylan van der Ven)
New Eastern Europe, Issue 3, April 11, 2021
Not all that glitters is gold
Dylan van der Ven
Les Grands Dossiers de Diplomatie n° 60, février-mars 2021
La guerre en Ukraine, sept ans après maïdan
Anastasiya Shapochkina
Les Grands Dossiers de Diplomatie n° 54, décembre-janvier 2020
Vers une détente sur le front Ukrainien?
Anastasiya Shapochkina
Regard sur l'Est, 16 November 2020
The revival of Russian rock in the post-Soviet space
Gabrielle Valli

A reminder of the influence and the soft power music can have on street politics.